Naples Codex Weekly Brief - Where Each Deal Met Its Ask | July 31, 2026

Naples Bay Luxury Homes | 07/31/2026

 
 
 
 

Four coastal Naples residences closed this week for $73.83 million, every one of them in cash, and three of the four settled within single digits of their standing ask. A 2026 Port Royal new-construction estate on Rum Row led at $40.18 million, 8.7% under its $44 million guide; a 2023 Port Royal resale on Sabre Cay cleared 8.4% under; and a 2019 Pelican Bay tower residence at Mystique cleared 4.9% under. The exception was an Olde Naples new build on 10th Avenue South that had opened at $19.5 million, cut twice, and closed at $15.1 million after 549 days. Where each deal met is the week's story: a current ask found its bid fast and close to the number, and a high one traded only once it came down to the market.

Drawn from MLS of Naples records, current as of July 31, 2026.

The Tape

The week's record, $4M+ coastal Naples.

  • Tracked: 11 residences — 5 new active, 2 new under contract, 4 closed.
  • Closed: 4 sales, $73.83M combined, all cash, a blended 9.3% below the final asks.
  • Per-foot range: the four closes printed $4,167, $2,269, $2,022, and $1,894/SF across 2026, 2025, 2023, and 2019 construction.
  • Top of the week: 3220 Rum Row, Port Royal — $40,180,000 at $4,167/SF, a 2026 London Bay build, 8.7% under the $44M ask.
  • Widest markdown: 187 10th Ave S, Olde Naples — $2.4M (13.7%) under its $17.5M ask and $4.4M under the $19.5M it first carried, at 549 days.
  • Tightest spread: 6897 Grenadier Blvd #1202, Pelican Bay — $7,600,000, 4.9% under the $7.995M ask, 198 days.
  • Fastest to a deal: 14 Sabre Ln, Port Royal — closed at 74 days, the shortest market time among the week's closes.
  • New to market: 5 actives asking $31.29M combined, from Pine Ridge's 188 West St ($9.995M, 3 days) to Coquina Sands' 675 Murex Dr ($4.25M, 4 days).
  • New under contract: Aqualane Shores' 625 21st Ave S ($19.995M ask) and Moorings' 809 Wedge Dr ($8.9M ask), both new this week.
  • Financing: all four closes cash.

The Lens

Ceiling Lens • Where Each Deal Met Its Ask

Measured against the last ask each carried, the week's four closes cluster tightly at the top of the range and split off at the bottom. Rum Row cleared 8.7% under its $44 million number, Sabre Cay 8.4% under $11.95 million, and Mystique 4.9% under $7.995 million. The fourth, 187 10th Avenue South, closed 13.7% under its $17.5 million ask, and 22.6% under the $19.5 million it first carried.

Three of the four came to the table with a number set to today's market, and each found a cash bid within single digits of it. 187 10th Avenue South took a different path to the same outcome: it opened at $19.5 million in early 2025, cut to $17.5 million, and waited 549 days before a $15.1 million cash offer met it. The asset is genuinely rare, a new-construction estate six houses from the beach in Olde Naples, and it cleared once the ask came down to where a buyer would write. The deal is real either way. What separates it from the other three is where the number started, not the discount it took to clear.

For a buyer or seller underwriting the next coastal close, the tell is the currency of the ask. A number set to the current market is the faster path to a sale near it; a number set to last year's market trades only after it resets, and the wait is measured in quarters. This week that reset cost 549 days and roughly $4.4 million off the opening guide. The clearing prices themselves stayed orderly: at trophy scale on the water, coastal Naples is paying its premium for new construction and direct-Gulf position, and it is meeting calibrated asks close to the number when sellers bring them.

Spotlights

Spotlight • Port Royal
Port Royal • Hidden Bay, direct Gulf access, western exposure • 2026 London Bay new construction • 6+ BR • 6 Full / 2 Half BA • 9,643 SF • $4,167/SF • 100 days • Cash

What it is: A 2026 London Bay estate on Rum Row with roughly 160 feet of frontage on Hidden Bay and a western exposure to the Gulf, architecture by Stofft Cooney and interiors by Romanza per the listing. At 9,643 square feet it closed for $40,180,000 in cash, the week's top sale and, at $4,167 a foot, its highest per-foot number by a wide margin. The estate sits a short distance from the Port Royal Club; Associate Membership eligibility is a detail worth confirming with us before underwriting at this level.

Why it matters: It set the week's top number and did so on a calibrated ask. Listed at $44 million in March, it met a $40.18 million cash bid roughly 8.7% under that ask after 100 days on market. For a new-construction estate fronting open water, that is a tight clearing distance, and it anchored the top of a per-foot range whose floor sat below $1,900.

Tradeoff reality: New construction, 160 feet of Hidden Bay, and unbridged Gulf access carry a per-foot premium that no resale on the same water matched this week. A buyer at this level is paying for the build year and the frontage first and the 9,643 feet second.

Codex note: The close is the reference point every other number this week was read against, and it shows a top-of-market ask meeting a real bid within single digits when the number is set right. For a buyer seeking new construction on Port Royal water at true trophy scale, this is the comp that frames the tier.

Spotlight • Olde Naples
Olde Naples • six houses from the beach, corner homesite • 2025 Waterside Builders new construction • 6+ BR • 7 Full / 1 Half BA • 6,655 SF • $2,269/SF • 549 days • Cash

What it is: A 2025 Waterside Builders new-construction residence in Olde Naples, six houses from the beach on a corner homesite, with architecture by MHK and interiors by L Design per the listing. The compound runs a main house, a one-bedroom guest house, and a cabana above the garage, three garage bays in all. It closed for $15,100,000 in cash.

Why it matters: This is the week's clearest picture of a number resetting to meet its buyer. The residence came to market in early 2025 at $19.5 million, cut to $17.5 million, and cleared at $15.1 million after 549 days, 22.6% under where it started and 13.7% under its most recent ask. The asset is rare and the eventual close captures real value on one of Olde Naples' most walkable blocks; the distance it traveled is a reading on the opening number, not on the house.

Tradeoff reality: A near-beach Olde Naples new build with a guest house and cabana is a specialized offering, and the buyer pool at $15 million and up for that profile is thin. The 549 days reflect how long a singular asset can take to meet the one buyer at its real number.

Codex note: Set beside this week's three calibrated closes, 187 10th Avenue South marks the other end of the same lesson: the same market that clears a current ask quickly will take its time with a high one. For a buyer with patience and cash, a long-standing new-construction listing that has already reset is where the value tends to surface.

Eyebrow-Raisers

Eyebrow-Raiser • Port Royal
Sabre Cay, Port Royal • deeded boat slip, no-bridge Gulf access • 2023 recent-vintage resale • 4+Den BR • 4 Full / 1 Half BA • 5,416 SF • $2,022/SF • 74 days • Cash

A 2023 St. Barths-inspired residence in the Sabre Cay enclave off South Gordon Drive, with a deeded boat slip and no-bridge access to the Gulf, closed for $10,950,000 in cash at $2,022 a foot, 8.4% under its $11.95 million ask and at 74 days, the shortest market time of the week's closes. Set against Rum Row's 2026 new-construction close three streets over, it draws the Port Royal per-foot line cleanly: a recent-vintage resale on protected water clears near $2,000 a foot while a new build on the open Gulf clears above $4,000. The listing references Associate Membership eligibility at the Port Royal Club, a detail worth confirming with us before underwriting.

Eyebrow-Raiser • Pelican Bay
Mystique, Pelican Bay • 12th-floor Gulf and bay views • 2019 high-rise • 3+Den BR • 3 Full / 1 Half BA • 4,013 SF • $1,894/SF • 198 days • Cash

A 12th-floor residence at Mystique in Pelican Bay closed for $7,600,000 in cash at $1,894 a foot, 4.9% under its $7.995 million ask, the tightest clearing distance of the week's four closes. At 198 days it took longer to find its buyer than the Port Royal resale did, but when the bid came it landed within five points of the number. For recent view-tower product with Gulf exposure and full Pelican Bay beach access, that near-ask close is the current reference for how these residences are pricing.

The Ledger

Tier A • Single-Family Over $10M
Deep Entry • Aqualane Shores
Aqualane Shores • Egret Channel, no-bridge water-direct • 2025 Wilbrett Construction new construction • 5+Den BR • 5 Full / 2 Half BA • 6,585 SF • $3,036/SF ask • newly under contract

What it is: A 2025 Wilbrett Construction new-construction residence on the water at Egret Channel, architecture by Kukk and interiors by Freestyle per the listing, newly under contract this week with contingencies at a $19,995,000 ask ($3,036/SF).

Why it matters: It is the week's largest new contract and puts an Aqualane new build into the $3,000-a-foot range, sitting between this week's Port Royal new-construction close above $4,000 a foot and its recent-vintage Port Royal resale near $2,000.

Tradeoff reality: The ask has stood since September 2025 and the contract is contingent; the clearing number is not yet set.

Tier B • Single-Family Under $10M
Deep Entry • Moorings
Moorings • western exposure, golf and lake views • 2026 Wilder Builders new construction • 5+Den BR • 5 Full / 1 Half BA • 4,868 SF • $1,828/SF ask • newly pending

What it is: A just-finished 2026 Wilder Builders residence in the Moorings along the golf club with western exposure, newly pending this week at an $8,900,000 ask ($1,828/SF), down from a $10.4 million opening guide.

Why it matters: It reads as the off-water new-construction number this week: finished 2026 Moorings product going to contract near $1,830 a foot, below the direct-Gulf tiers and above established resale. Moorings Beach Park eligibility travels with the address, a detail worth confirming with us.

Tradeoff reality: The contract came after a reset from $10.4 million; the buyer here is paying a new-construction premium without a direct-Gulf frontage.

Pine Ridge • New Listing
2022 • 8,541 SF • $1,170/SF ask • 1.72-acre corner lot

A 2022 Pine Ridge Estates residence on a 1.72-acre corner homesite, new to market at $9,995,000. Off-water Pine Ridge land at $1,170 a foot, a different tier from this week's coastal per-foot numbers.

Coquina Sands • New Listing
1958 • 3,990 SF • $1,065/SF ask • 0.52-acre corner, S/W exposure

An updated 1958 Coquina Sands residence on a high-elevation half-acre corner with south and west exposure, new to market at $4,250,000 ($1,065/SF), the week's lowest single-family per-foot ask.

Moorings • New Listing
2015 • 4,240 SF • $1,592/SF ask • former model, 0.33 acre

A furnished 2015 former model in the Moorings west of U.S. 41, single-story, new to market at $6,750,000 ($1,592/SF).

Tier C • High-Rise and View Tier
Deep Entry • Park Shore
The Brittany, Park Shore • 9th-floor Gulf and Venetian Bay views • 1995 high-rise • 3+Den BR • 3 Full / 1 Half BA • 3,274 SF • $1,617/SF ask • Gulf-frontage building

What it is: A remodeled 9th-floor residence at The Brittany on Gulf Shore Boulevard with Gulf and Venetian Bay exposures, new to market at a $5,295,000 ask ($1,617/SF).

Why it matters: It gives the week a Park Shore beachfront-tower ask to sit beside the Pelican Bay close at Mystique ($1,894/SF, 2019 build): a renovated 1995 building asks below the newer tower's clearing number, a reading on how build year sorts the view-tier.

Tradeoff reality: The building dates to 1995; a buyer is weighing the remodel and the Gulf frontage against newer inventory along the boulevard.

Naples Square • New Listing
Quattro • 2023 penthouse • 3,437 SF • $1,455/SF ask • downtown mid-rise

A 2023 penthouse at Quattro in Naples Square, downtown, new to market at $4,999,995 ($1,455/SF). Its ask sits near the established-resale per-foot band, a downtown mid-rise rather than a beachfront view line.

The Question

The Question

With three of four calibrated asks clearing fast this week and one ask that reset over 549 days before it met a bid, which standing high-DOM listing reprices next, and does the reset, when it comes, still land inside this week's single-digit band?

My provisional read: the longest-standing new-construction asks are the ones most likely to move, because a builder or developer carrying an unsold finished house pays to wait in a way a resale seller often does not. When those numbers reset, I would expect the closes that follow to land within single digits of the new ask, the way this week's calibrated three did, rather than repeating 187 10th's full 549-day distance. I would want three or four more repriced-then-cleared closes before treating that as settled, but the direction this week is consistent: the ask's currency, more than its size, sets how close the deal lands to it.

Codex Recap

This Week's Tell

This week's tell: Four cash closes for $73.83 million, and three of the four settled within single digits of their standing ask: Rum Row 8.7% under, Sabre Cay 8.4% under, Mystique 4.9% under. The fourth, an Olde Naples new build, cleared only after two cuts and 549 days brought its number down to a $15.1 million bid. Where each deal met tracked how current its ask was, not how large.

How to use it: Underwrite by the currency of the ask before the headline number. A coastal Naples ask set to today's market is the faster path to a close near it; one set to last year's market trades only after it resets, and the reset is measured in quarters. When you see a long-standing high-DOM listing, read the original number, not the current one, to judge where it will actually clear.

Jose & Renee Malachowski, P.A.

Naples Bay Luxury Homes at Premiere Plus Realty
(239) 319-8154 • Jose@NaplesBayLuxuryHomes.com
NaplesBayLuxuryHomes.com
Private advisory available by request.

MLS data is believed accurate but not guaranteed. Verify all details, dimensions, finishes, permits, HOA and condo rules, costs, club eligibility, boating specifications, and terms prior to transacting.

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